Solar Power to Rule in 20 Years, Futurists Say
He predict?d t?e fall of the Soviet Union. He predict?d the explosive spread of the Internet and wireless access.
Now futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil is part ?f distinguished panel of engineers that says sol?r power will s?ale u? to produce all the energy needs of Earth's p?ople in 20 years. 
There is 10,000 times more sunlight than we need to meet 100 percent of ou? energy needs, ?e ?ays, and th? technology n?eded fo? collecting and storing ?t ?s about to emerge ?s the field of solar energy i? going to ad?ance exponentially in accordance with Kur?weil's Law of Accelerating Returns. That law yields a doubling of price performance ?n information technologies every year.
Kurzweil, author of "The Singularity Is Near" and "The Age of Intelligent Ma?hines," worked ?n the s?lar ene?gy solution with Google Co-Fo?nder Larry Pag? as part ?f a panel of ?xperts convened ?y the Nat?onal Association of Engineers t? ?ddress the 14 "grand challenges of th? 21st centur?," including ma?ing ?olar energy more economical. The pan?l's findings were announced here last week at th? annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement ?f Science.
Solar to c?mpete in five years
Solar and wind power currently su?ply about 1 percent ?f the world's ?nergy needs, Kurzweil said, but advances in te?hnology are about t? expand with the introduction of nano-engineered materials for sola? panels, making th?m far more efficient, lighter and e?sier t? install. Go?gle has invested substantially in companie? pione?ring the?e approaches. Regardless of any one technology, members ?f the pan?l are "confident that w? are not that far a?ay fr?m a tipping point where energy f?om sol?r ?ill be [economically] competitiv? wit? fossil fuels," Kurzweil said, adding that it co?ld happen within fiv? ?ears. Th? r?ason why sola? ?nergy technologies will advance exponentially, Kurzw?il said, is bec?use it ?s an "information technology" (one for which ?e ?an measure the inf?rmation content), and t?ereby sub?ect to the L?w of Acc?lerating Returns."We also see ?n exponenti?l progression in t?e use of sol?r energy," h? said. "It is d?ubling now every tw? years. Doubling every two years means multiplying by 1,000 ?n 20 years. At that r?te we'll meet 100 percent of our en?rgy ne?ds in 20 years." Other technologies that ?ill help are solar concentrators made of par?bolic mirrors that foc?s very large areas of sunlight onto ? small c?llector or ? small efficient steam turbine. The energy can be stored using nano-eng?neered fuel cells, Kurzweil sa?d. "You c?uld, for example, ?reate hydrog?n or hydrogen-based fuels from the en?rgy produced b? sola? panels and then ?se that to create fuel fo? fu?l cells, ?e said. There are already nano-engineered fuel cells, microscopic in size, that c?n b? scaled u? to store huge quantities of energy, he said.
Other grand challenges
The NAE pan?l thinks that meeting the energy challenge and the ot?er grand challenges of the 21st century ?s "simply imperative to our survival on the planet," said panel member Charles V?st, former president of MIT and cur?ent NAE president. Ot?er challenges t?at the panel addressed include pr?viding access to clean water , engineering better medicines, reve?se enginee?ing the brain, securing c?berspace and enhancing ?irtual reality. T?e inspiration for the repo?t was ? previous NAE th?t reflected on the engineering achievements ?f the 20th century, such as the automobile, aircraft, jet aircraft, rockets, missiles, satellites, radio, radar, television, nuclear power, nu?lear weapons, the computer, internet, genetic engineering and antibiotics. These inventions gave us the green re?olution th?t improved f?od production a? global population gr?w, the dist?ibution of safe wat?r and electric?ty, improved ?ealth and generated ?n improved standard of living for many in the world. However, no? the world faces s?me dark consequences of these advances, said Stanford University's William Perry, a memb?r of the Grand Challenges panel and a former Secr?tary of Defense in Pre?ident Cl?nton's administration, including t?e depletion ?f prevailing ?nergy resources, a looming global envir?nmental disaster ?n glob?l warming, the emergence of dr?g-resistant b?gs ?nd t?e thre?t of ? security disa?ter if nuclear and biological weapons fall into t?e wrong h?nds. Wit? t?is in mind, the NAE bro?ght together the panel (ot?er members included Segway invento? D?an Kamen, biomedi?al engineer Robert Langer, former National Institutes of Health Director B?rnadine Healy and genomics pi?neer Cra?g Venter) to report on the needs of society and h?w technology can meet them.
More solutions t? 21st century challenges
Other tech solutions suggested by t?e NAE panel to the new century's big challenges include:
* Bette? detection and monitoring of nuclear wea?ons components to pre?ent them fr?m g?tting in th? hands of terrorists.
* Impro?ing rapid ?esponses to possible bioweapons attacks.
* Advances in genetic engineering to address the problem of drug-resistant viruse? and bacteria, and t? c?eate personalized medicine.
* Desalinization and ?ater filtering to address the shortage of potable drinking water.
* Tutoring comput?rs to h?lp meet education needs.
* Artificial intelligence that better simulates the brain to help cr?ate faster computers and ?lso to aid in the treatment ?f neu?ological disorders
Perry w?s optimistic about the ability of society to arr?ve at the?e solutions, saying the achievements of the 21st century "?ill I beli?ve be ?ust ?s spectacular as ach?evements ?f 20t? century."
Panel membe? Calestous Ju?a ?f Harvard University, an authority on using science and techn?logy to promote sustainable development, said the policy i?plications of th? 21st century challenge? plan reveal a "m?re enlight?ned understanding of ?ole of science and technolog? in general." "This idea [of solving large-scale pro?lems u?ing technological ?nnovation] i? being develop?d in the context of a globali?ed world," h? said. "Even though the proposals have b?en dev?loped in t?e Un?ted State?, the challenges thems?lves that humanity faces are global in character."
Source: LiveScience
http://www.livescience.com/environment/080219-kurzweil-solar.html
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|